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The war in Ukraine will shortly be one year old. Nobody thought it would last a month. Everyone put on a sad face, and said how horrible the Russian invasion was.
Then astonishing and surprising reports came from Ukraine that turned the story around. Ukraine President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy spurned the offer of an airplane ride to safety and asked for arms and ammunition instead. Eye-popping innovative tactics — like deliberately flooding offroad fields that resulted in Russian convoys stalling and running out of gas — kept Ukraine in the fight and pumped up morale. Russian President Valdimir Putin increasingly appeared unable to deftly counter Ukraine’s strenuous efforts to remain independent.
From the start of the conflict, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has offered daily analysis and maps. At the end of 2022, here are ISW’s key takeways concerning the current status of the Ukraine war:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war in Ukraine and its cost to his domestic audience.
- Putin delivered his address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) as part of his ongoing efforts to portray himself as an effective wartime leader.
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu demonized Ukraine and announced that Russian victory is inevitable in his New Year’s Eve speech.
- Russian forces are likely depleting their stocks of artillery ammunition and will struggle to support their current pace of operations in Ukraine as a result.
- Russian forces launched another round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure but at a reduced intensity compared to previously massive waves of strikes.
- Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukraine and Russian exchanged prisoners but differed in their reporting on the number of exchanged personnel.
- Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 31.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City on December 31.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost connection to its last functioning back-up power line on the evening of December 29.
- Russian forces continue operations in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and along the southern axis.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov stated on December 31 that he knew “for a fact” that the Kremlin plans to close its borders for men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization in “one week or so.”
- Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories in response to Ukrainian partisan activities.
- Russian occupation officials continue to create unbearable living conditions for residents of occupied territories.
ISW’s coverage is not limited only to Ukraine. It is also covering the ongoing crisis in Iran, and has published research reports on Iraq and Belarus.
