Assessing California’s climate policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan update

The Legislative Analyst’s Office has just published the following report:
 
Assessing California’s Climate Policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan Update

California has established statutory goals for reducing statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including a target of at least 40 percent below the 1990 level by 2030. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) must develop a plan for meeting this goal, and update this Scoping Plan every five years. In this brief, we evaluate CARB’s recently adopted plan for meeting the state’s 2030 goals.
 
First, we find that CARB’s plan lacks a clear strategy for meeting 2030 GHG goals. The plan does not identify specific policies to implement. Instead, the plan’s estimated reductions are driven primarily by assumptions developed by CARB without specifying how those assumed outcomes might be achieved. The lack of focus on policy options is a missed opportunity that has important ramifications for California’s overall GHG reduction efforts. 
 
Second, we find that the cap-and-trade program is not currently well-positioned to ensure the state meets its 2030 GHG goals. In short, the program is not stringent enough to drive the emission reductions needed. This is because there will be more than enough allowances available for covered entities to continue to emit at levels exceeding the 2030 target.
 
We recommend the Legislature direct CARB to submit a report to the Legislature that clarifies its plan for reducing emissions to meet the 2030 goal. We also recommend the Legislature consider changes to the cap-and-trade program to address concerns about program stringency.
 
This report is available using the following link: https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4656?utm_source=laowww&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4656